April 2025 Chart Pack Summary

SUMMARY

• PMI surveys suggest US economy is slowing, but not recessionary.
• Similar surveys also suggest corporate earnings are showing resilience, in our view.
• While tariff policy is a wild card, longer-term inflation expectations have stayed anchored.

We are excited to release our April 2025 Chart Pack, our visual quarterly designed to walk investors through what is happening in markets and why, what may come next, and how we are positioning RiverFront portfolios. In today’s Weekly View, we picked three Chart Pack visuals to highlight.

After a promising January, this year has devolved into ‘Headline Hell’ — a nerve-jangling twilight zone where the US stock market convulses over every White House utterance. The Trump Administration’s early focus on tariff policy has ushered in a heightened state of uncertainty, as the market attempts to handicap politics’ impact on US inflation and economic growth.

However, underneath the chaos of ‘Headline Hell’, we believe the US economy continues to show signs of resilience. Employment and credit have held in relatively well despite the uncertainty and corporate earnings thus far appear resilient, in our view.

Our investment team views monthly Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) surveys as a useful forward-looking indicator of economic and earnings health, in our view. Should the economy and earnings continue to expand – as Services PMI (Chart 1, below) and Composite PMI survey readings over 50 (Chart 2, below) suggest - we believe this recent pullback will end up representing an attractive opportunity for longer-term focused investors, though visibility for the market in the near-term remains low. We will continue to monitor inflation expectations (Chart 3, below) and earnings for signs of deterioration … but for now are viewing ‘Headline Hell’ as a transitory phase.

Risk Discussion: All investments in securities, including the strategies discussed above, include a risk of loss of principal (invested amount) and any profits that have not been realized. Markets fluctuate substantially over time, and have experienced increased volatility in recent years due to global and domestic economic events. Performance of any investment is not guaranteed. In a rising interest rate environment, the value of fixed-income securities generally declines. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss. Investments in international and emerging markets securities include exposure to risks such as currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets and political instability. Please see the end of this publication for more disclosures.